Oil Prices Rise Rapidly
Rubatex Msds Oil prices shot to their highest level in two months yesterday as traders grappled with the severity of reduced crude oil supplies caused by strikes in Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest oil exporter.
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Rubatex Neoprene The price of crude oil for January delivery rose $1.66, to $30.10 a barrel, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, an increase of 5.8 percent.
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Rubatex Pipe It was the biggest single-day gain since January. Oil prices are now up more than 50 percent from those a year earlier.
The non manufacturer's DI fell 5 points to +21 as companies felt the pressure of rising oil prices.
Rubatex Pipe Insulation The strikes in Venezuela have been led in large part by the managers and white-collar workers at the state oil company, Petrleos de Venezuela. Their walkout, which entered its seventh day yesterday, has brought the Venezuelan oil industry to a standstill, and exports have plummeted from about 2.7 million barrels a day to sporadic shipments of less than 500,000 barrels, estimated George Beranek, manager of market analysis at the Petroleum Finance Company, a Washington consulting group.
However a weak dollar combined with rising oil prices will push up inflation and this could restrict the Fed's decision with regards to future monetary policy.
Rubatex 180 Venezuela is the fourth-largest supplier of oil to the United States, accounting for 9 percent of its daily crude oil supply. Oil traders initially reacted with calm during the first 10 days or so of strikes and supply disruptions, convinced that the conflict between supporters and opponents of President Hugo Ch vez would be resolved relatively quickly, as were strikes last spring. Instead, both sides have hardened their stances and the chances seem remote for a quick, peaceful resolution to the standoff that would start the oil flowing again, traders and industry analysts said.
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Rubatex 180 Fs "If both sides stick to their guns, it wouldn't be out of the question for the price of oil to get up to $35 by the end of the week," said John P. Kilduff, senior vice president for energy risk management at Fimat, the commodities trading arm of Socit Gn rale. "This is significant for U.S. supplies in particular. Really bad, in fact."
Rubatex 1800 Consumers may see the effect of the price increases as early as the end of this week or the beginning of the next, traders and industry analysts predicted.
Rubatex 320 Venezuela is a major exporter of gasoline to the United States, and last week, prices at New York Harbor, a wholesale pricing point, had begun to rise.
Rubatex 373 Moreover, a large refinery that supplies gasoline to the United States, the Hovensa plant in St. Croix, V.I., announced last week that it would reduce output because of shortfalls in Venezuelan crude oil.
Rubatex Rubber The Venezuelan shutdown comes at a time when stockpiles of crude oil and petroleum products are already low compared with last year's levels, thanks in great part to the export cuts that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has made this year and to increased consumer demand.
Rubatex Tape Last week, OPEC, at a meeting in Vienna, said that its members would supply more crude oil to the market if the shutdown in Venezuela persisted. But traders and analysts pointed out that such a move would not immediately damp oil prices.
Rubatex Closing "OPEC has very small levels of excess production capacity outside the Persian Gulf," Mr. Beranek said, "and with the 40-plus days it takes for tankers to sail from there to here, it's not a source of short-term relief for the market."
Rubatex Closed Cell Gasketing Oil selling for $30 a barrel does not threaten a return to recession, economists said, but "it is certainly enough to forestall a more sustained recovery in the economy when the recovery is still very tepid," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, a consulting firm in West Chester, Pa.
Felpro Gaskets Prices at $35 to $40 a barrel are much more of a threat, economists said. While that may seem far-fetched now, continuing conflict in Venezuela could combine with war in Iraq to disturb oil supplies so profoundly that even OPEC would lack the spare production capacity to make up for shortfalls, industry experts warned.
Poly Products Supplies "Generally, I wouldn't be concerned if it were just Venezuela," said David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor's. "But combine that with what's happening in the Middle East, and if you're not nervous, you're not paying attention."
Poly Hunting Feeders Murmurs are already rising in the oil markets that perhaps the Bush administration should consider releasing oil from the nation's 598-million-barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve if the Venezuelan shutdown continues.
Shoreline 13171 17 Neoprene The Energy Department has already said it will allow oil companies that owe oil to the reserve in the near term to defer those deliveries until later in 2003 to keep more crude oil on the market.
Neoprene Pads "The S.P.R. is probably the only thing in the short-term that has so much oil so close by that it can get the oil into market quickly enough," Mr. Beranek said.
By Neela Banerjee
New York Times - 12/17/2002
Topic: Petroleum Industry
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